ammo and reloading components bubble?

[stevecrea]

For over a month or two, I have been hearing stories about taxes on ammo, taxes on reloading components, hoarding, no components on the shelves, people buying up assault rifles, buying up handguns, hoarding ammo, no ammo on the shelves.......

Has anyone heard about "bubbles"? Remember the internet bubble? That was only about eight years ago. How about the real estate bubble? That peaked in about 2006 or 2007. However, just a few years before that, all you heard were stories about how you could not go wrong in real estate. Today, real estate is down 20 to 60 percent and still going lower. Hmmmm. And, if the real estate was leveraged, as nearly all real estate is, the equity crashing by much larger amounts. Hmmmm.

How about the commodity bubble? $147 oil and soon going to $250? Hmmmm. Today, $40 and perhaps going lower? Hmmm.

Does anyone remember reading about the "Tulip Bubble"? Or the "South Sea Bubble"? These are historic tales of bubble mania that most people laugh about today, because they were so stupid. Hmmmm.

Bubbling, bubbling, Obamaing, gurgling, choking, bubbling.......Nobamaing......

Comments?

[tckurt]

I have had a heck of a time finding reloading stuff also.
A employee at walmart said some one was in and bought $800.00
in 22 shells.

[Rick in Oregon]

stevecrea: Ha! You made me grin with the closing "Nobamaing" moniker. Bubble indeed, and I/we can only hope that like the primer crunch just a few years ago that just 'went away', that this bubble will also pop soon. Make no mistake though, if you really research the subject, you'll find out just how long the Demo's have waited for just this moment in time to try to enact their agenda through all the anti-gun groups to sympathetic liberal ears now in power in both houses and the Oval Office.

I saw an "eyes only" document of a "five year plan" from HCI that outlined draconian measures intended to bring the firearms industry, hunting, and private gun ownership down, and all without negating the 2nd Amendment. They DO indeed intend to accomplish this with primarily excessive taxation. I for one hope it's all bunk, and never comes to light. But.....that's what I saw with my own eyes on a document with HCI letterhead on the doc marked "Confidential".

(I'm not making this up, and can't tell you how I came across the doc.)

[stevecrea]

Rick,

Yes, you make a number of excellent points. I am concerned about these issues as well. Perhaps even the reintroduction of wolves falls into this category. To take this issue a step further, if there is no game left to hunt, who will buy rifles, scopes, ammo, tags, gear, etc?

However, with regard to the current paucity of ammo and reloading components, something just does not seem right. There is too much hyping about NoBama, gun control, ammo taxes, blah, blah, blah.

We will only know if it is a bubble after it has actually burst. In the meantime, perhaps we should not accept the kneejerk responses from the retailers as all truth. Take it with a grain of salt, as we are generally admonished.

In the meantime, take a peak at Cabela's stock price. Ticker CAB. In short, it is not pretty.

[Rick in Oregon]

steve: Agreed. We'll just have to buck-up and ride the bubble out, and hope for all our collective sake it bursts soon. I've never seen such a shortage on components in all the years I've been handloading though, whatever the actual reason, imagined or induced by others. Was not aware of Cabelas stock plunging though.....not a good sign.

Wolf Reintroduction: Don't even get me started!

[stevecrea]

Rick,

Well, Cabela's stock price is down around 80 percent off its peak several years ago. While not as bad as some, it does give you a bit of a gauge or barometer as to the situation of one of the sporting goods industry's premier retailers. Further, my understanding is that Sportsmen's Warehouse was sold to a Canadian company in a bit of a firesale a few months ago, and that Sportsmen's had their back up against the wall. Cabela's and Sportsmen's are two of the big ones here.

Walmart has had better supplies of ammo here than some of the others. This may be because Walmart is stronger financially, but I am speculating a bit.

[Rick in Oregon]

steve: We have a Sportmans Whs here, but I don't think any of us here locally were aware of the recent sale. I do know their component shelves have been sparsely stocked of late, and only yesterday was I fortunate to snag 4 lbs of 10X, but no primers in sight, save for some magnum pistol offerings. I hope the sale to a Canadian compnay does not influence their past buying trends, as Canada has some very restrictive firearms laws, but being in business, it is my hope that they stay on the same path that led to their past success and continue to carry the produts we've all come to rely on.

That is really bleak news re: Cabalas, and I'm hoping this is not a trend, but with the economic state of the country right now, I'm betting we're not at the bottom......yet. 80% off their peak it a real hit in anyones book.

It is ineed sad to see two of the biggest sporting goods retailers in trouble, as Wally World only sells generic stuff, and nothing precision oriented or products aimed at precision shooters, just the masses. I'm hoping this 'bubble' shrinks soon.

[Glen]

and all without negating the 2nd Amendment.

I sure wish my hunting buddies would listen to me when I tell them that.

[stevecrea]

Rick,
If you Google "Sportsmen's Warehouse", you will probably get some of the detail and commentary about the recent sale.

I like both Sportsmen's and Cabela's, and buy at both of them, along with some of the local retailers, and hope that they all survive. However, as you acknowledge, the economic scenario is probably likely to get worse before it gets better.

The ammo and reloading components issue seems a little similar in some respects to the gasoline and oil commodity bubble: As prices are rising for oil, the gasoline retailers quickly raise prices. After oil plummets, they are very slow to lower prices. Price fixing? Hmmmm. Many state attorneys general have filed charges against the gasoline distributors and retailers for this very issue. Perhaps the ammo and reloading components retailers and distributors should take note.

Some of the people at Sportsmen's were pretty candid about the chain being up against the wall on its bills.

[jo191145]

Bubble or not its real. Someone posted on BR Central a week or so ago that a certain obscure internet reloading component site had Fed 205M's in stock.
Everyone jumped and they were sold out that night.

I ordered 5000 because I was wary of it being a scam. When I never recieved an email confirming order or shipment I called. Seems a legit business and they're new software glitched.
I was informed my primers indeed shipped that day
The guy on the phone was shocked. They had been sitting on pallets of primers and in one night they were gone

[stevecrea]

I do not doubt the anecdotal evidence. However, it is confirmation that there is bubbling and mania going on. It is similar to when oil hit $147 and many gurus were predicting $250 and $300 soon. Today, it is below $40. That is a $75 percent drop.

How about the impossibility of losing money on real estate, because they were not making any more of it.......blah, blah, blah?

Or, Google at $720 and predicted to go quickly to $1500, now at $355?

Yes, we will only recognize the bubble as a true bubble, after the fact. But, in the meantime, all the talk about how you cannot go wrong may be problematic and misguided.

[stevecrea]

I just returned from Walmart, and while their selection is quite narrow for reloading components, they do have Varget, Reloader 22, IMR 4350, and IMR 4831, along with a respectable selection of Hornady, Sierra, and Nosler bullets in many calibers.

So, my theory is this: Walmart is paying its suppliers, while some unnamed retailers may be slow pays to their suppliers. This factor may have been in play last fall, and helped to precipitate the "shortages", which led to the hoarding, hyperbole, lying, and misinformation. However, this is merely a theory, and I do not know for sure.

Check out Walmart for generic components. Their prices are OK, and supplies are decent.

[Va varminter]

I'm glad I live in an area where the 204 is 2nd fiddle to the 22-250 and 223. I can still get brass and bullets most times I look. The primers(BR4) are still tricky to find though. Just remember one thing. If this is a political thing, we can change it in 2010.

[cynergyguy]

I have been to several Walmarts all across this country And I usually visit there sporting goods dept. but I have never seen or heard of walmart selling reloading supplies.

[Rick in Oregon]

When in our Wally World here, I'm lucky to find even white box WW .45ACP, and that's if I'm lucky that day (good, cheap practice ammo). Forget reloading supplies, you'll just get a blank stare from the guy behind the counter. Cheap, generic rifles, mostly .22's, and items in bubble wrap intended for mass marketing/big box stores only.